NEWS

A significant change in the way the world’s leaders are starting to see Africa was revealed this week but has gone almost entirely unreported. Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), was in Cote d’Ivoire’s capital, Abidjan, and identified conflict as the "enemy number one" of Africa’s economic growth.

 

She said: "Security is too fragile … if there is no peace, the people simply won’t have the confidence or courage to invest in their own future and neither will (foreign investors)."

 However, Lagarde did not stop at security being significant merely because it crippled economic development in Africa. She said it was vital for the financial stability of the entire world.

 

"It’s clear that emerging countries are the motor of world economic growth," she said, backing the IMF’s projections that sub-Saharan Africa will grow 5.25% this year, second only to Asia’s boom economies and well above the world average of 3.6%.

To hear the recognition from such a leading figure in the international community that security is one of Africa’s core problems was incredibly uplifting.

 

It echoes statements I made last year, when I said: "Capitalism is the most powerful driving force behind Africa’s economic development…. Stability is crucial because the growing middle classes (up to a third of all Africans) will spend more money if they feel confident, and they will feel more confident if they feel safe. The next stage will be to convince private investors that no sudden, unexpected or violent shift in government will happen and make their funds disappear overnight."

 

Lagarde said: "I cannot help but be impressed by the continent’s resilience … in the face of the most serious disturbances seen by the world’s economy since the Great Depression."

While the leading economies are struggling to tiptoe back into growth, it is to Africa that the world is turning for impetus.

 

Lagarde’s recognition of this is a minor historical moment in Africa’s relations with the rest of the world — instead of Africa being seen as a drain, it has been accepted as a vital driver of the global economy by one of its leading figures.

 

Global leaders have previously come close but have never been so explicit.

 

When US President Barack Obama visited Ghana in 2009, he said: "Your prosperity can expand America’s. Your health and security can contribute to the world’s…. All of us must strive for the peace and security necessary for progress."

 

He also said that "development depends upon good governance" but I would say that, beyond this, good governance depends on stable societies. I would venture that Lagarde agrees.

I have had the privilege to work with many African countries to strengthen the capabilities and capacity of their defence, police and peacekeeping forces. I have seen first-hand the benefits for economic activity, inward investment, regional stability and long-term growth that stability can bring.

 

Africa cannot rely solely on its booming sectors, such as oil, for its growth. It needs to build strong and wide economic foundations.

 

Its projected growth might be second only to Asia’s, but unlike Asia it is happening in the absence of the institutional framework necessary to absorb that growth and direct it towards more investment in things such as infrastructure, health, education and public transport.

As Obama noted, control over resources and the benefits of growth have too often been restricted to small elites, rather than public institutions that have some degree of accountability. Unless this changes, there will always be conflict for control of resources and the enrichment they bring.

 

African governments and their regional organisations have increasingly acted on this problem in recent years and are working together better than ever to resolve political disputes, as well as to intervene militarily in armed conflicts — we can expect to see more African intervention in African conflicts this year.