Stock market investors in Gulf countries are expected to remain cautious in July as the Brexit story is not yet over but this month might see a couple of rallies in regional capital markets on second quarter results.
"We expect caution to prevail in regional markets over the short term as investors attempt to gauge the impact of the Brexit vote," according to Invest AD's market outlook for Gulf markets.
The direct effect of the vote on GCC economies will be limited as demand for hydrocarbon exports is driven primarily by emerging markets, it added.
Financial results for the June quarter from GCC companies to be announced over the next couple of weeks will also provide some direction and triggers for market activity, Invest AD predicts.
Talking about financial markets, the report says: "We do see Brexit heightening risk aversion and promoting a flight to safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and US treasuries, and consequently some outflows from emerging markets like the GCC." A stronger dollar might also result in some weakness in crude prices, which could affect regional investor sentiment. On the positive side, heightened global risk could delay US rate hikes, relieving some downward pressure on emerging market equities.
Today, UAE markets are expected to open with no big movements because of long Eid holidays. The Securities and Commodities Authority, the UAE market regulator, has announced that financial markets will be closed from July 5-9, and will resume trading on July 10.
Last Thursday, UAE bourses closed higher. The Dubai Financial Market General Index increased by 1.21 per cent and The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange's benchmark index climbed by 1.82 per cent.
The best performers of the session on the Dubai bourse were Mashreqbank, which rose 4.83 per cent at the close. Meanwhile, Takaful House added 3.45 per cent and Dubai Parks and Resorts was up 1.96 per cent.
The top performers on the ADX were Fujairah Building Industries, which rose 11.11 per cent, Gulf Cement Company, up 9.20 per cent, and Bank of Sharjah, which gained 6.67 per cent.
